With 2025 getting underway, Idaho’s economy is already feeling the ripple effects of a concerning international trend—decreasing cotton production. This, combined with uncertainty about landmark trade deals such as the Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GSP+), has placed Idaho’s trading industries, retailers, and small enterprises on notice.

Although Idaho has long been associated with its agricultural, forestry, and technology industries, it is also engaged in the general U.S. trade community. As cotton shortages impact global supply chains and the future of GSP+ remains uncertain, the state is now gearing up for possible economic winds of change.

The Global Cotton Crisis Hits Home

Current climate changes, such as droughts and severe weather in leading cotton-growing countries like India, Pakistan, and the US South, have caused a plummeting decline in cotton production. The resulting shortages already are driving prices for cotton up and impeding the movement of raw materials around the world.

While Idaho does not produce cotton at a commercial scale, it uses cheap cotton imports for various purposes. Garment manufacturers, local clothing producers, and retailers ordering cotton-based items are now facing increased costs and lower availability.

“We get a lot of our fabric from overseas, especially for outdoor gear and uniforms,” said Jeff Thomas, who manages a small textile production unit in Boise. “With cotton prices up and shipments delayed, we’ve had to rethink our entire inventory process.”

GSP+ Uncertainty Adds to the Pressure

Compounding the complexity is the uncertainty of the GSP+ trade program. GSP+ permits some developing nations to export goods—such as cotton fabrics—to the U.S. tariff-free. This has enabled American companies to secure low-cost inputs and promoted fair trade relations.

Nonetheless, in 2025, some of the countries enjoying the GSP+ are facing scrutiny because of issues with respect to human rights, labor legislation, or environmental regulations. If the countries lose their GSP+ designation, Idaho businesses may experience a steep increase in the price of imported cotton goods.

“Even a small tariff hike could hit our bottom line,” said Alyssa Greene, a clothing retailer based in Twin Falls. “We work with overseas manufacturers, and if the trade agreements change, we’ll either have to raise prices or cut orders.”

Retail and E-commerce at Risk

Idaho’s expanding retail and e-commerce industries also rely critically on the free flow of cheap imported products. Cotton products such as t-shirts, bedclothes, towels, and infant wear are big sellers. Interruptions in cotton commerce or price hikes will consequently hit small online stores and neighborhood stores equally.

“It’s a chain reaction,” says Bryan Lee, an Idaho Falls business analyst. “A delay or increase in the cost of imported cotton drives up prices, which reduces consumer spending and influences sales. It’s not even a big-city issue—it’s statewide.”

Logistics and Distribution Networks Take a Hit

Idaho’s central location and strong trucking infrastructure mean it plays a key role in distributing goods throughout the Northwestern U.S. While cotton isn’t the state’s biggest import, cotton-based goods move through its warehouses and freight networks regularly.

When our customers order fewer shipments, we move less freight,” explains Lila Martinez, a Nampa logistics coordinator. “It may not seem like much, but if enough companies slow down, it has impacts on jobs, fuel consumption, and volumes delivered.”

Idaho’s Agri-Tech Sector Considers Alternatives

A few of Idaho’s agri-tech and material science innovators are starting to seek out alternatives to standard cotton. Textiles made from hemp, bamboo fabrics, and recycled products are all picking up interest as companies search for more stable and sustainable alternatives.

“We are experimenting on fibre blends with agricultural waste,” said Dr. Ben Waters of a Boise startup. “Cotton is a wonderful fibre, but it is not the only one. What we require is investment and time to scale alternatives.”

Policy and Preparedness

Idaho business leaders are calling on federal officials to provide transparency regarding future trade agreements. Companies will have to change and respecify their sourcing approaches if access to GSP+ with major partners is taken away.

“Tough talk and stopgap measures—such as lower import tariffs or business grants—may make a real difference,” said Janice Taylor, the state’s economic adviser. “We have seen how quickly events on a distant continent can hit an economy near us. Idaho needs to be prepared.”

Conclusion: Adaptation Will Be Key

Idaho’s economy, like most others throughout the U.S., is under pressure as a result of declining cotton production and trade agreement uncertainty. Whether it’s a mom-and-pop retailer in Pocatello or an importer of fabric in Boise, businesses are revising their strategies to keep themselves ahead.

Since cotton is still in short supply and the GSP+ dynamic remains in a state of flux, Idaho’s combination of innovation, logistical prowess, and business resiliency will be key to meeting this challenge. While the state does not raise cotton, it certainly relies on it—and more than ever before, flexibility is the name of the game.